Scenario-Based Hydrological Modeling for Designing Climate-Resilient Coastal Water Resource Management Measures: Lessons from Brahmani River, Odisha, Eastern India

Widespread urban expansion around the world, combined with rapid demographic and climatic changes, has resulted in serious pollution issues many coastal water bodies. To help formulate management strategies to mitigate impacts of these extreme changes (e.g., local land-use or climate change adaptation policies), research methodologies that incorporate participatory approaches alongside computer simulation modeling tools have potential be particularly effective. One such methodology, called “Participatory Coastal Land-Use Management” (PCLM) approach, consists three major steps: (a) approach find key drivers responsible for quality deterioration, (b) scenario analysis using different impact assessment, (c) scientific evidences developing mitigation measures. In this study, we applied PCLM Kendrapara district India (focusing on Brahmani River basin), a rapidly urbanizing area country’s east coast evaluate current status predict its future conditions. The involved informant interviews determine degradation, which served as an input hydrological next step. Future river (BOD Total coliform (Tot. coli) important parameters) was simulated Water Evaluation Planning (WEAP) tool, considering plausible (to 2050) incorporating diverse pressures (i.e., population growth, change, change). samples (collected 2018) indicated already moderately-to-extremely polluted comparison desirable (Class B), results is likely further deteriorate by 2050 under all considered scenarios. Demographic emerged driver affecting deterioration (68% 69% BOD Tot. coli respectively), whereas had lowest (12% 13% although not negligible. Scientific evidence understand can zone ensuring sustainable resources region. having active stakeholder involvement, co-generation options followed open access free software, models play relevant cost-effective enhance science-policy interface conservation natural resources.